The six-month lock-in expired this morning; ₹5,637 Cr of VC stock cleared at a 6% discount on 11× volume.

• The block. Peak XV, Sequoia, Ribbit and Y Combinator sold 30.91 Cr shares (5.01% of equity) at a ₹182.30 floor; the stock printed -5.4% intraday on 542M shares — 11× the 50-day average.
• Founders held. The four co-founders did not sell a share; the combined 25–27% stake (~₹29,500 Cr) is intact. Today's supply was entirely the VC stack — ICONIQ had already cut 53% pre-IPO.
• The August echo. May-12 sellers are inside a 90-day mini-lock-up that ends Aug-10 — the same week Q1 FY27 results land. Roughly 37% of equity still sits with pre-IPO VCs.

India's retail-broker base shrank 7.1% in FY26 — Groww was the only top-five player that grew.

• Sole grower. Industry shed 34.88 lakh active NSE clients in FY26. Zerodha lost 9.95 lakh, Angel One lost 8.15 lakh; Groww added 17,917 net and widened #1 NSE share to 28.22%.
• Twice the next player. 12.94 Cr active NSE clients vs Zerodha 6.89 Cr — a 1.88× lead built and extended through the worst regulatory cycle in a decade.
• But the moat ends at the broker. 84% of revenue is still broking, and F&O alone is 54.6% of Q4 revenue — the exact line SEBI took 38% out of with the Oct-2024 framework. MTF book ₹1,036 Cr versus Angel One ₹5,450 Cr (5.3× larger); wealth AuA an order of magnitude behind every listed pure-wealth peer.

Platform operating leverage produced Q4 FY26 +88% YoY revenue and a 62% margin — but the comp lands on the Oct-2024 F&O trough.

Revenue compounded 81% per year FY22–FY26 (₹427 Cr → ₹4,645 Cr) on a roughly ₹1,500–1,900 Cr semi-fixed cost base — in-house tech, no branches, ₹450–500 Cr fixed marketing — so each incremental order drops to a 59% operating margin. The Q4 print (revenue +88%, EBITDA +142%, PAT +122%) annualises to ₹2,744 Cr PAT, already above the FY26 trailing line. But Q4 FY25 was the trough of the Oct-2024 SEBI F&O package; the next print — Q1 FY27 in early August — is the first quarter without that base distortion, and the test of whether the acceleration is operating leverage or a base recovery.

Consensus is bolting three asset-gatherer franchises onto a discount-broker P&L that doesn't yet contain them.

• Wealth. Groww W + Prime + Fisdom combined AuA is roughly ₹25,000 Cr. Anand Rathi runs ₹93,037 Cr at 47% ROE; 360 ONE runs ₹6.74 lakh Cr. Management has deferred wealth-ARPU disclosure three quarters running.
• AMC. ~₹10,000 Cr exit-FY26 AUM versus HDFC AMC's ₹6+ lakh Cr. State Street's ₹580 Cr / up-to-23% stake (CCI cleared March, SEBI pending) is a credibility milestone — not yet a revenue one.
• MTF lending. ₹1,036 Cr book funded 100% with equity; Angel One sits at ₹5,450 Cr with a four-year head-start. RBI's April-2026 CME norms raised the collateral bar for everyone.

₹2,083 Cr of FY26 PAT produced negative ₹21 Cr of operating cash — and both bull and bear are reading the wrong line.

• The float reading. Three-year cumulative CFO/NI is 0.03×. But FY25 pre-working-capital CFO was +₹2,487 Cr — 1.36× of PAT. The gap is ₹1,905 Cr of US-merger tax catch-up, ₹1,041 Cr of MTF book build, and ₹819 Cr of exchange-earmarked client float. Mechanics, not accounting.
• The real question. The 100%-equity-funded MTF book is what is absorbing the cash. The signal that matters is not whether reported CFO turns positive — it is whether new MTF capital earns above 25% ROE before the headline 28.8% compresses.
• Pre-IPO clean-up overhang. FY24 absorbed both a ₹779 Cr one-time founder bonus and a ₹1,340 Cr US outbound-merger exceptional tax; FY25 released a ₹106 Cr LTI accrual back into operating profit (worth 2.6pp of margin). The FY24→FY25 inflection is partly accounting timing, not pure economics.